SHIVM Stock Valuation 2026 — Is Shivam Cement Worth Buying

Introduction

One of the most watched listed cement stocks in Nepal is Shivam Cement Limited (NEPSE: SHIVM). SHIVM provides a multi-layered investment story that goes beyond straightforward price-to-earnings analysis thanks to infrastructure-driven demand cycles, continuous capacity investments, and a strategic interest in the soon-to-be-listed Shivam Holdings. In order to provide Nepali retail and institutional investors with a data-driven fair value estimate, this comprehensive valuation report analyses SHIVM's financial performance over an eight-year period using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Relative Valuation, DuPont Analysis, and Altman Z-Score frameworks.

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Company Overview

Shivam Cements Limited (Ticker: SHIVM) is a publicly listed cement manufacturer in Nepal, trading on the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE). The company operates within the core construction materials segment, manufacturing Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) and Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC) for the domestic infrastructure, residential, and commercial construction markets.

SHIVM operates an integrated industrial facility in Makwanpur's Hetauda. The factory can produce about 1,900 TPD of clinker and about 3,000 TPD of cement per day. The usage of captive limestone mines, which promotes backward integration and somewhat reduces risks related to raw material procurement, is a crucial structural component of its operations.

The company's profits trajectory is tightly linked to trends in building activity, government infrastructure spending, loan availability, and Nepal's general economic conditions because it operates in a capital-intensive and cyclical industry. Prices for energy and coal, freight costs, and changes in mining and industrial regulations are important factors on the cost side. Pricing discipline and margin sustainability are further impacted by industry-wide competition.

SHIVM exposes investors to the domestic real estate and infrastructure cycles. Instead of being solely driven by company-specific factors, its financial performance is heavily influenced by broader demand-supply dynamics, capacity utilization levels, and input cost swings.

Financial Snapshot

Particulars (In Crore)	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Cash Flow from Operating Activities (CFO)	159.73	295.62	299.45	223.82	106.53	117.67	76.73	171.87
Add: Interest Expenses (Net of Tax)	29.35	27.71	12.07	2.12	5.23	7.73	3.81	0.52
Less: Fixed Capital Investment	113.49	33.49	15.88	35.85	44.06	12.25	20.60	53.95
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)	75.59	289.84	295.64	190.09	67.70	113.15	59.93	118.44
Less: Net Borrowing	429.77	181.48	24.50	67.88	62.17	37.30	7.32	1.02
Less: Interest Expenses	29.35	27.71	12.07	2.12	5.23	7.73	3.81	0.52
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)	476.01	443.61	308.07	255.85	124.64	142.71	63.45	118.93
Number of Outstanding Shares	3.87	4.40	4.40	4.40	4.40	4.40	5.03	5.46
FCFF per share	19.52	65.87	67.19	43.20	15.39	25.72	11.92	21.70
FCFE per share	122.94	100.82	70.02	58.15	28.33	32.43	12.62	21.80
CFO per share	41.25	67.19	68.06	50.87	24.21	26.74	15.26	31.50

Revenue Analysis

Year (Amount in ‘000)	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Revenue from Cement Sales	1,016.49	1,112.11	878.70	923.53	890.59	767.01	768.27	775.24
Revenue from Clinker Sales	0.00	-	0.48	-	-	6.01	1.74	2.43
Revenue from Limestone Sales	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Other Operating Income
Revenue From Trading Sales	8.90	20.81	21.71	37.30	34.34	1.18	0.05	0.45
Revenue From Scrap Sales	1.12	1.59	0.01	0.71	1.10	1.07	0.46	0.46
Revenue From Service Sales	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Total Revenue	1,026.51	1,134.51	900.91	961.54	926.04	775.26	770.52	778.57

In terms of revenue, SHIVM went through a distinct expansion phase up until FY2019, after which it underwent a multi-year normalisation in line with more general industry conditions. Due mostly to increasing cement sales volume and better market realisation, total revenue rose from roughly NPR 10.27 billion in FY2018 to a peak of NPR 11.35 billion in FY2019. However, due to industry-wide disruptions and a decline in building activity, FY2020 saw a dramatic drop, with total revenue falling to about NPR 9.01 billion.

Revenue recovery in the subsequent years was not structural, but rather moderate. Although there was a partial recovery to NPR 9.62 billion in FY2021, the increasing trend was not maintained. Total revenue began to decline in FY2022 and reached NPR 7.75 billion in FY2023 before levelling out at NPR 7.70–7.79 billion in FY2024–2025. This plateau indicates that the domestic cement market's supply side is still under pressure and that demand growth is constrained.

The company's heavy reliance on core cement operations is demonstrated by the fact that cement sales continue to provide the vast bulk of revenue, consistently providing more than 98% of total turnover. While trade and scrap sales have drastically decreased recently, suggesting a diminished contribution from non-core operational streams, clinker sales have remained irregular and insignificant in relation to total revenue.

Overall, the revenue trajectory over the previous eight years illustrates how Nepal's construction industry is cyclical, with peak profitability linked to favorable market conditions and subsequent deceleration brought on by decreased capacity utilization and pricing pressure. Whether infrastructure spending and demand recovery can significantly boost topline growth above the present stabilization range will be the crucial factor for investors moving forward.

Relative Valuation (RV)

Relative valuation assesses a company’s market value by comparing key multiples such as Price-to-Earnings (P/E) and Price-to-Book (P/B) against peer companies within the same sector. This approach helps identify whether a stock is priced at a premium or a discount relative to industry norms, reflecting market expectations on profitability, risk, and growth. However, relative valuation is sensitive to earnings volatility, capital structure differences, and cyclical conditions, particularly relevant in manufacturing and textile-related businesses.

Symbol	EPS Annualized	P/E	Relative P/E Valuation	Book Value	P/B	Relative P/B Valuation	Final PE/PB Valuation	LTP	Difference	Remarks
								23.04.2026
BNL	19.27	796.57	970.77	3201.17	4.80	21769.60	11370.18	15350	-3979.82	Premium
BNT	223.96	51.37	11282.47	3021.55	3.81	20548.09	15915.28	11505	4410.28	Discount
GCIL	-5.27	-82.54	-265.49	166.58	2.61	1132.83	433.67	435	-1.33	Premium
HDL	24.31	47.26	1224.67	120.87	9.51	821.98	1023.32	1149	-125.68	Premium
NLO	48.25	5.58	2430.70	507.62	0.53	3452.09	2941.39	269.4	2671.99	Discount
OMPL	-12.81	-93.43	-645.33	97.93	12.22	665.97	10.32	1196.9	-1186.58	Premium
RSML	16.08	268.66	810.06	490.58	8.81	3336.20	2073.13	4320	-2246.87	Premium
SAGAR	-7.21	-244.11	-363.22	128.34	13.71	872.78	254.78	1760	-1505.22	Premium
SARBTM	20.61	41.15	1038.27	188.92	4.49	1284.75	1161.51	848	313.51	Discount
SAIL	1.92	604.69	96.72	110.63	10.49	752.34	424.53	1161	-736.47	Premium
SONA	3.09	142.39	155.67	191.42	2.30	1301.75	728.71	440	288.71	Discount
SHIVM	9.66	69.67	486.64	180.38	3.73	1226.68	856.66	673	183.66	Discount
SYPNL	1.20	1333.33	60.45	109.64	14.59	745.61	403.03	1600	-1196.97	Premium
UNL	935.94	49.38	47149.98	4627.69	9.99	31470.66	39310.32	46220	-6909.68	Premium
Median		50.4			6.8

(As per Q2 82/83 report of Manufacturing and Processing companies listed in NEPSE)

According to Nepal's manufacturing sector's relative valuation table, SHIVM is in the more reasonably valued end of the range. The company is now trading at a P/E of 70.39x, which is higher than the industry median of 50.4x, indicating that the stock is not cheap based only on earnings multiple. The current market price of NPR 673 is higher than the relative P/E-derived valuation of NPR 486.64, suggesting that earnings-based valuation is insufficient on its own to support a compelling upside argument at current levels.

However, using a P/B lens makes the image more balanced. In comparison to the sector median P/B of 6.8x, SHIVM trades at 3.77x book value, suggesting a very moderate balance sheet-based valuation. The company is not asking an aggressive premium to its net asset base in comparison to its peers, as evidenced by the relative P/B value of NPR 1226.68, which is significantly higher than the current market price. The ultimate relative valuation, which is higher than the current LTP of NPR 673 and represents a discount of about NPR 183 per share, is NPR 856.66 when the P/E and P/B metrics are combined.

All things considered, the market seems to be giving SHIVM moderate expectations, which is probably owing to cyclical headwinds in the cement industry and muted demand. The stock does not seem overstretched from a relative valuation standpoint, and if sector fundamentals improve, it may provide limited upside. However, near-term re-rating would probably depend more on earnings recovery and margin normalization than on multiple expansion alone.

Note: Relative valuation is inherently short-term and heavily dependent on current earnings, book values, and valuation multiples of peer companies, all of which can change quickly due to market conditions, competition, or sector-wide shifts. Since it does not incorporate long-term growth prospects, future risks, or company-specific developments, relative valuation should be viewed as a directional indicator rather than a standalone investment decision tool.

Dupont Analysis

A financial framework known as the DuPont Analysis divides a company's Return on Equity (ROE) into three main parts: leverage (represented by the equity multiplier), efficiency (represented by asset turnover), and profitability (measured by net profit margin). Rather of seeing ROE as a single number, DuPont emphasises the factors that influence the return, such as higher financial leverage, excellent margins, or efficient asset utilisation. This makes it an effective tool for rapidly determining the fundamental advantages or disadvantages of an organization's overall performance.

Particulars	Formula	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Tax Burden	Net Profit / Pre-Tax Income	87.68%	85.49%	91.33%	92.63%	91.30%
Asset Turnover	Revenue / Avg. Total Assets	0.66x	0.66x	0.58x	0.57x	0.53x
Financial Leverage	Avg. Total Assets / Avg. Equity	1.28	1.27	1.24	1.23	1.19
Interest Burden	Pre-tax Income/ Operating Income	118.19%	135.74%	114.16%	101.42%	137.11%
Operating Margin	Operating Income/ Revenue	17.61%	8.79%	8.37%	3.87%	12.32%
Return on Equity (ROE)		17.65%	7.20%	5.56%	3.44%	11.60%

    

A distinct structural change in return dynamics over the last eight years is highlighted by the DuPont breakdown of SHIVM. After reaching a peak of 23.39% in FY2019 and a respectable 20.05% in FY2018, the company's Return on Equity (ROE) fell precipitously to 3.44% in FY2024 before rising to 11.60% in FY2025. Rather than shifts in debt or tax structure, the main cause of this compression has been a decline in operating fundamentals.

The most notable volatility is seen in operating margin, which fell from the 17–19% range between FY2018–FY2021 to just 3.87% in FY2024 before rising to 12.32% in FY2025. This suggests that during the downturn phase, there was a lot of pressure from weak pricing, reduced capacity utilisation, or higher input prices. Additionally, asset turnover decreased progressively from 0.83x in FY2019 to 0.53x in FY2025, indicating lower revenue generation in relation to the asset base, which is consistent with underutilised production capacity and muted industry demand.

Financial leverage has steadily decreased from 1.93x in FY2018 to 1.19x in FY2025, indicating a more cautious balance sheet structure over time. This reduces the amplifying effect of debt on stock returns while simultaneously enhancing financial stability. Despite its volatility, the interest burden ratio shows times when financing pressure was higher, especially in FY2024–FY2025, which may have further limited net profitability. The tax burden has stayed comparatively constant in the meantime, suggesting that variations in ROE are primarily operational rather than tax-driven.

Altman Z-Score

The Altman Z-Score is a financial model used to assess a company’s risk of financial distress or bankruptcy. It combines five key financial ratios, i.e., working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales into a single score that indicates how financially stable a firm is. Analysts widely use the score because it captures profitability, leverage, liquidity, and efficiency simultaneously, making it a quick and effective measure of a firm’s financial health.

In simple terms:

• Z-Score above 3.0 - Company is in the safe zone with low bankruptcy risk.

• Z-Score between 1.8 and 3.0 - Grey zone, meaning moderate risk; the company should be monitored.

• Z-Score below 1.8 - Distress zone, indicating high financial risk and potential solvency issues

Ratio	Weight	2021	%	2022	%	2023	%	2024	%	2025	%
EBIT / Total Assets	3.3	11.75%	39%	6.29%	21%	5.57%	18%	2.56%	8%	6.59%	22%
Net Sales / Total assets	1.0	66%	66%	66%	66%	58%	58%	57%	57%	53%	53%
Book Value of Equity / Total Liabilities	0.6	3.54	213%	3.73	224%	4.19	251%	4.41	264%	5.31	318%
Working Capital / Total Assets	1.2	0.18	22%	18.13%	22%	11.24%	13%	9.41%	11%	7.20%	9%
Retained Earnings / Total Assets	1.4	38.26%	54%	35.89%	50%	35.73%	50%	31.66%	44%	35.30%	49%
Altman Z-Score		3.93		3.83		3.91		3.86		4.51
Average		4.03

According to SHIVM's Altman Z-Score research, the company has improved balance-sheet resilience in recent years and has generally stayed within the financial "safe zone" across the studied period. The Z-Score strengthened to 4.12 in FY2020 after rising from 2.51 in FY2018 (borderline zone) to 3.54 in FY2019. With ratings ranging from 3.83 to 3.93, there was some moderation between FY2021 and FY2024, but it was still much above the 3.0 distress level. The Z-Score significantly increased to 4.51 in FY2025, indicating the best solvency status during the reviewed period.

The Book Value of Equity to Total Liabilities ratio, which increased gradually from 1.08x in FY2018 to 5.31x in FY2025, is the component with the biggest structural strength. This lowers the risk of long-term insolvency by gradually deleveraging and strengthening the equity foundation. Despite recent cyclical challenges, the ratio of retained earnings to total assets has also stayed strong, showing cumulative profitability.

However, operating-related metrics like Net Sales to Total Assets and EBIT to Total Assets exhibit declining tendencies, especially starting in FY2022. This is consistent with the previously noted margin compression and decreasing asset turnover, indicating that the balance sheet remained fundamentally solid even though operational efficiency decreased during the industry slump. The ratio of working capital to total assets has steadily decreased, indicating tighter liquidity conditions but not levels of distress.

Overall, the Altman Z-Score indicates that cyclical earnings volatility rather than solvency problems are driving SHIVM's risk profile. The company's capital structure is strengthened by the recent improvement in FY2025, and it looks to be financially stable with little risk of bankruptcy. Going forward, sustained recovery in profitability metrics would further reinforce its already solid solvency position.

Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is a quantitative method used to estimate the intrinsic value of a company's stock. It is based on the idea that a stock's value is equal to the present value of all of its future dividend payments. To put it simply, DDM views a stock as a sequence of future cash flows rather than market hype or erratic price fluctuations. Investors can ascertain if a stock is now overpriced or undervalued by "discounting" these future rewards back to current cash using a needed rate of return.

Shivam Cement Limited (SHIVM)
SN	Year	C. Dividend	EPS	Retention Ratio	ROE
1	2018	15.780	35.14	55.10%	20.05%
2	2019	15.780	51.49	69.36%	23.39%
3	2020	24.210	35.75	32.27%	15.05%
4	2021	29.000	45.79	36.67%	17.65%
5	2022	10.530	18.06	41.69%	7.20%
6	2023	0.750	13.69	94.52%	5.56%
7	2024	0.450	7.54	94.03%	3.44%
8	2025	10.000	26.20	61.83%	11.60%
Average		13.313	29.21	60.68%	12.99%

Dividend Projections
SN	FY	Dividends	PV
0.5	2026	13.83	13.00
1.5	2027	14.92	12.81
2.5	2028	16.09	12.49
3.5	2029	17.36	12.18
4.5	2030	18.73	11.87
5.5	2031	20.21	11.57
6.5	2032	21.80	11.28
Growth Rate			0.0788
Terminal Rate			0.037
Terminal Value			241.74
Present Value of Terminal Value			108.9
Sum of all Present Values			85.222
DDM Valuation			194.12

Based on anticipated dividend growth and a long-term sustainable growth rate of 3.70%, the DDM valuation of SHIVM projects an intrinsic value of around NPR 294 per share. A sustainable growth rate of around 7.88% in the medium term is implied by the model's incorporation of historical averages, such as an average dividend of NPR 13.31 per share, a retention ratio of 60.68%, and an average ROE of 12.99%.

From the standpoint of an income investor, the valuation indicates that SHIVM's ability to pay dividends on its own does not provide sufficient support for the company's present market price. Due to the company's vulnerability to industry conditions, dividend distribution has historically been cyclical and drastically decreased during years of lower profitability. The idea that the market is valuing the firm more on growth and recovery prospects than on steady dividend yield fundamentals is therefore reinforced by the fact that SHIVM appears to be valued substantially beyond the value justified solely by projected future cash distributions within a dividend-focused framework.

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

DCF valuation method estimates a company's value by projecting future cash flows and discounting them back to the present, and provides a comprehensive, long-term financial assessment. However, the results of the DCF method can be subjective, relying on assumptions about growth and risk, which can vary widely across analysts and markets.

Key Assumptions:

Particulars	Value	Remarks
Adjusted Beta (β)	1.21	The raw weekly beta of 1.32 of the 5-year will move towards the market beta of 1 over time.
Market Return (Rm)	11.60%	CAGR of closing prices of NEPSE from FY 2001/02 to FY 2024/25
Risk-Free Rate (Rf)	3.25%	Average Development Bond Rate for FY 82-83 adjusted for a tax rate of 6.00%
Cost of Equity (Ke)	13.38%	As per the CAPM Model
Cost of Debt (Kd)	7.88%	As per the average monthly lending rates of commercial banks since February 2014 (adjusted as per tax rate)
Tax Rate	20%	As per the annual report
WACC	13.05%	Discount rate for the valuation (based on equity 94% and debt 6% in its capital structure as per Q2 82/83)

·         Capacity Utilization has been assumed as follows:

Capacity Utilization	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Base case	72.75%	74.32%	75.64%	76.97%	78.34%	79.72%	79.72%
Best case	74.96%	76.65%	78.35%	79.84%	81.37%	82.92%	84.51%
Worst case	69.96%	71.20%	72.39%	73.61%	74.84%	73.61%	73.61%

·    The Terminal Growth Rate has been assumed at 3.70%, based on the average of historical and projected GDP growth rates.

·   Cement Per Bag Price to be increased by 5% in base case, 6.5% in best case, and 3.5% in worst case.

·   Admin Exp projected to be 3.98% of total revenue.

·   Depreciation expense to be 4.06% of total revenue.

·   Selling & Distribution expenses to be 8.11% of total revenue in base case, 7.70% in best case, and 8.70% in worst case.

·   Other Income, which consists of dividends from subsidiaries and interest, is projected at 5% of total revenue in the base case, 8% in the best case, and 3% in the worst case.

·   CAPEX has been assumed at NPR 260,430,536.10, based on the average of the past three years.

·   Investment in PRVUPO has been considered at NPR 100 per share for 1,120,000 units, totaling NPR 112,000,000.00.

·   Investment in HLICF Mutual Fund has been considered at NPR 10 per unit for 25,000,000 units, amounting to NPR 250,000,000.00

·   Investment in SHIVAM HOLDINGS has been considered at NPR 100 per share for 39,452,088 units, totaling NPR 3,945,208,800.00. This amount has been incorporated post-valuation of SHIVM as an adjustment to arrive at the final valuation of SHIVM, including the investment in Shivam Holdings.

DCF Valuation & Interpretations:

Base Case Valuation (Amount in NPR million)
Year	Revenue	COGS	Other Income	Selling & Admin Exp	EBITDA	CAPEX	Working Capital	FCFF	WACC	PV
2026	8,761.70	6,322.64	438.08	1,059.00	2,173.84	260.43	(211.64)	1,338.15	13.05%	1,258.54
2027	9,398.08	6,781.87	469.90	1,135.92	2,331.74	260.43	1.00	1,682.27	13.05%	1,399.54
2028	10,042.64	7,247.00	502.13	1,213.83	2,491.66	260.43	(86.82)	1,727.61	13.05%	1,271.35
2029	10,731.41	7,744.02	536.57	1,297.08	2,662.54	260.43	(92.78)	1,863.96	13.05%	1,213.34
2030	11,467.41	8,275.14	573.37	1,386.03	2,845.15	260.43	(99.14)	2,009.66	13.05%	1,157.17
2031	12,253.89	8,842.68	612.69	1,481.09	3,040.28	260.43	(105.94)	2,165.35	13.05%	1,102.89
2032	12,866.59	9,284.82	643.33	1,555.15	3,192.30	260.43	(82.53)	2,315.35	13.05%	1,043.15

An estimated intrinsic equity value of around NPR 342 per share is obtained from the base case DCF valuation of SHIVM. The adjusted fair value rises to about NPR 413.16 per share after accounting for the value of its strategic interests, such as stakes in Shivam stakes and other financial assets inherent worth in a range of operational circumstances. The estimated fair value in the base scenario is NPR 342.62 per share; after accounting for Shivam Holdings' worth, it rises to NPR 413.16.

Particulars	Amount (in NPR million)
Terminal Growth Rate	3.70%
Terminal Value	25,663.17
PV of TV	11,562.21
Sum of all PV of FCFF	8,445.99
Total Debt	651.72
Cash and cash equivalents	725.31
Contingent Liabilities with NEA	1,276.15
Marketable Securities of PRVUPO	112.00
Mutual Fund Investment in HLICF	250.00
Total No. of shares	55,932,287
Total Value of the SHIVM	19,148.90
Value per Share	342.62
Investment in Shivam Holdings *	3,945.21
Value per Share after adjusting for investment in Shivam Holdings	413.16

The DCF-derived value shows a significant premium in the trading price as compared to the current market price of around NPR 673. The stock is trading much above its base case intrinsic value estimate even after accounting for investment assets. This suggests that the market may be accounting for better capacity utilisation, greater profits recovery, increased pricing power, or a lower effective risk premium than the model predicts.

In conclusion, SHIVM seems overpriced from a DCF standpoint under the base case predictions, with the current market price reflecting more positive forward expectations than those included in the valuation model.

Scenerio	Valuation	Adj. Shivm Holdings
Base Case	342.62	413.16
Best Case	525.92	596.46
Worst Case	215.18	285.71
Median	361.24	431.78

SHIVM's scenario-based DCF valuation offers an organised perspective on intrinsic value under various operating circumstances. The estimated fair value in the basic scenario is NPR 342.62 per share, which rises to NPR 413.16 when Shivam Holdings' worth is taken into account.

The value increases to NPR 525.92 (or NPR 596.46 adjusted) under a more optimistic best-case scenario, which reflects higher operational performance assumptions. In contrast, intrinsic value drops to NPR 215.88, or NPR 285.71 adjusted, in the worst-case scenario, indicating downside risk in a less favorable operating environment.

After adjustments, the median valuation across scenarios is NPR 431.78, or NPR 361.24, which can be considered an estimate of central tendency. Even the best-case adjusted valuation is still marginally below market levels when compared to the current market price of approximately NPR 673. This indicates that the stock is currently pricing in performance expectations at or above the model's optimistic scenario.

With a small margin of safety based on projected cash flow, the DCF scenario analysis generally shows that SHIVM is trading toward the upper end of its fundamental value range. Even in the best-case scenario, further upside would probably need operating results that surpass the underlying assumptions.

Conclusion

SHIVM offers a diverse yet organised investment case that incorporates all analytical techniques, operating performance, return ratios, solvency situation, relative multiples, DCF scenarios, and DDM value.

Under conservative and base case assumptions, intrinsic value determined from cash flow and dividend capacity primarily clusters around the NPR 300–400 per share range from a core operating standpoint. The cement industry is still cyclical, and returns are mostly reliant on sector demand normalisation, capacity utilisation, and margin recovery. The current market price seems to reflect expectations that are more robust than those included in basic estimates on a stand-alone manufacturing basis.

The valuation dynamics, however, change when non-operating assets and strategic investments are taken into account, especially its ownership in Shivam Holdings Ltd., which is presently awaiting SEBON permission for an initial public offering (IPO) at a premium issue price of NPR 210 per share. Transparent price discovery has the potential to unlock embedded balance sheet value inside SHIVM if it is approved and then listed on the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE).

Interestingly, comparable investment-category equities in Nepal are currently trading at much higher market values, some of which are about NPR 1,000 per share. This suggests that once an investment stock is listed, the market tends to assign considerable premiums to it. The implicit look-through value of SHIVM's stake might significantly raise its consolidated valuation if Shivam Holdings launches and demands a valuation comparable to sector peers.

Final Verdict:

From an operational standpoint, SHIVM seems to be quite stretched. On the other hand, the upcoming IPO of Shivam Holdings is a significant catalyst when considered as a whole. Therefore, the investment case at current prices is more about prospective value unlocking through subsidiary listing and improved market perception than it is about the immediate performance of the cement business. Both operational recovery and Shivam Holdings' excellent secondary market performance would be necessary for sustainable upside.

Disclaimer & Disclosures

FOR INFORMATIONAL AND EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY — NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

This research report has been prepared solely for informational and educational purposes based on publicly available financial data and the financial model provided. It does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation to buy or sell securities, or a recommendation of any kind. The analysis, opinions, and valuations contained herein are those of the analyst and are subject to change without notice.

Investing in securities involves substantial risk of loss. Past financial performance is not indicative of future results. The valuations presented are based on assumptions about future performance that may not materialize. Actual results may differ materially from any projections or forward-looking statements herein.

This report has not been reviewed or approved by Shivam Cement Limited Limited, Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE), or any regulatory authority. Readers should conduct their own independent due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

All financial data sourced from: Company Annual Reports, NEPSE market data, Nepal Rastra Bank lending rate data, and the financial model prepared by the commissioning analyst.