Is Now the Right Time to Buy Silver in Nepal?
A few months ago, there was talk of silver everywhere.
It broke its 46-year record. It reached $50 an ounce for the first time ever. Then it broke $80. Then $100. On January 29, 2026, silver reached a nominal all-time high price of $121.64 per ounce worldwide, and prices in Nepal briefly crossed NPR 7,000 per tola. Your neighbour was purchasing it. Your relatives were calling you about it. Silver charts rocketed and flooded the financial WhatsApp groups.
Now? Silence.
Silver has dropped by about 40% from its January high. World prices have dropped back to around $73–75 an ounce. Silver in Nepal is trading around NPR 4,800-5,400 per tola, depending on the day. A few months ago, the same people who were passionate about silver are now either mute or have gone on to something else.
This article is not intended as hype. It is written to give you a clear-eyed view of silver as it stands today: where prices are, why they fell, what still makes the case, what the risks are, and how it compares to the investment options most Nepali investors already have - NEPSE, fixed deposits, and real estate. Because here’s the truth: buying when everyone is excited is how you get burned. Buying is often how you make money when everyone else has forgotten.
Source: https://fenegosida.org/
Where Silver Stands Right Now
Let us start with the numbers, because everything else flows from here.
In Nepal
In December 2025, the price of silver in Nepal hit an all-time high of over NPR 4,895 per tola. In January 2026, it briefly surpassed NPR 7,300 per tola when the price of silver reached $121.64 per ounce globally. Since then, silver prices in Nepal have drastically decreased. As of mid-May 2026, the price of silver is currently trading at NPR 4,800-5,400 a tola, which represents a 35–40% drop from the peak in January. But here is the number that matters most for perspective: silver was NPR 1,765 per tola in January 2025. Even at today's beaten-down price, you are still looking at a 140–200% gain from just 16 months ago.
In Global
On January 29, 2026, silver prices around the world reached a record $121.64 per ounce, one of the most powerful precious metals rallies on record. However, silver has since corrected sharply, with prices trading in the $73-76 per ounce range as of May 19-20, 2026 – a sharp correction from its January peak. Even after this recent correction in the silver price, the metal is still up about 122–137% year-over-year, reflecting its strong long-term momentum. The past 7 days alone saw silver fall over 11% as US inflation data came in hotter than expected, pushing the Federal Reserve to signal rates will stay higher for longer
So silver has had a brutal few months. It crashed. The narrative collapsed. Most retail investors who bought near the peak are sitting on significant losses and have mentally "moved on."
This is not unusual. This is how silver has always behaved.
Why Did Silver Fall So Hard?
Understanding the crash is essential before you decide whether to buy. Rising US inflation has disrupted the rate-cut narrative that helped fuel silver’s explosive 2025 rally. Anticipations that the US Federal Reserve would cut interest rates, weakening the US currency and increasing demand for precious metals, were a major factor in silver's climb. Instead, inflation in April 2026 was 3.8%, much higher than anticipated. Now that short-term rate cuts have been almost ruled out, markets are starting to factor in the potential for additional tightening. Higher interest rates and a stronger currency continue to be the main short-term pressures on silver prices.
Another level of complexity has been introduced by the ongoing tensions in the Middle East with Iran. Although safe-haven investments like silver are frequently supported by geopolitical anxiety, the ensuing increase in oil prices is raising fears about global inflation. Silver may be impacted in the near future by the increased prospects of sustained higher interest rates. In this instance, precious metals are under indirect pressure to decline due to inflation brought on by conflict. Additionally, silver's high leverage increases volatility. The amount of physical silver available for delivery is thought to be many times smaller than the paper silver market, which includes futures, ETFs, and options. Prices can drop quickly as leveraged bets unwind, as was the case following the January peak. Rather than any significant decline in industrial demand or long-term fundamentals, the recent 40% drop seems to be the result of speculative liquidation.
The easy money has already left. Everyone who was going to buy silver near $121 has already bought it. The crowd that drove the rally has moved on. That is actually a healthy sign for anyone thinking about the next stage.
But the Fundamental Case Has Not Changed
The fundamentals have not collapsed. The sentiment has collapsed. These are very different things.
Here is what has NOT changed since silver was at $121:
- Supply gap for the sixth year in a row: The Silver Institute projected a deficit of about 46 million ounces in 2026. For ten years, the world's mine production has remained unchanged.
- Industrial need continues to rise: semiconductors, solar, electric vehicles, and AI data centers all require silver, and this demand is developing fundamentally.
- China's restrictions on exports are still in effect. As of January 1, 2026, 60–70% of China's refined supply must be approved by the government before being exported.
- Inventory levels for COMEX and LBMA are still close to multi-year lows. Since 2021, the physical silver vaults in London have lost about 40% of their contents. US COMEX inventories are still much below their peak in 2020. Because there is less actual metal available, the market is more susceptible to any rise in demand, which has historically resulted in price instability and ultimately higher costs.
So, Is Now the Right Time to Buy?
This is the real question. And the honest answer is that it depends on how you define "right time." If you are asking whether silver will go up tomorrow, or next week, or next month, no one can predict it, and no one knows. The Middle East scenario, dollar fluctuations, global inflation data, and Federal Reserve signals will all influence short-term prices in unpredictable ways. Silver falling another 10–15% from here is entirely possible.
However, the answer to the question of whether the current price is a better long-term entry opportunity than the $121 peak in January 2026 is definitely yes. Compared to those who were excited about silver four months ago, you are purchasing it for around 40% less at $73–75 per ounce and NPR 4,800–5,390 per tola.
History constantly shows that the ideal time to purchase any asset is not when everyone is excited and prices are at all-time highs, but rather when sentiment is negative and prices have corrected.
The people who made serious money in silver were not buying at NPR 7,000 in January 2026. They were buying at NPR 1,700 in January 2025 when nobody was writing about it. Today's silver looks a lot more like January 2025 than January 2026.
How to Buy Silver in Nepal?
If you think that silver should be in your portfolio, here's a realistic method.
- Invest in physical silver: You have direct ownership of the metal when you purchase coins, bars, and certified ornaments from authorized jewelers and bullion dealers. Check for purity: 99.9% pure silver with a "999" mark is the standard for investments. 92.5% sterling silver, which is frequently used in jewelry, is less pure.
- Avoid entering everything at once: Considering the volatility of silver and the possibility of additional short-term declines, it would be wiser to purchase a certain amount each month for three to six months. This eliminates the stress of attempting to choose the ideal bottom and averages your entrance price.
- Make sure you size your position correctly. Generally speaking, financial gurus advise allocating 5–15% of your overall portfolio to precious metals (gold and silver together). In particular, silver should be a lower portion than gold for the majority of investors due to its volatility. Consider it part of your precious metals allocation that has more risk and opportunity.
- Think in years, not weeks. The structural factors driving silver, including China's export limitations, EV adoption, solar energy, AI infrastructure, and the sixth straight supply imbalance, take years, not months, to manifest. Silver isn't the best option if you need the money in less than six months.
- Where to buy silver in Nepal: Banks, bullion dealers, and certified jewelers sell physical silver. In Dhanteras, Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) also offers gold and silver for special occasions. Always ask for a receipt and confirmation of purity. Compare prices across multiple retailers; premiums over spot prices may vary.
Silver isn't a quick money plan. Despite what the WhatsApp groups said when it reached $121, it never has been. In Nepal today, silver is a tangible, reasonably priced, globally relevant asset that has sharply corrected from its highs, whose fundamental case is still intact, and which provides Nepali investors with a real alternative to the three options they have always been offered: NEPSE, FD, and real estate.
You won't have the security of a fixed deposit from it. Unlike a good NEPSE stock, it won't pay dividends. It can't be converted into a house. However, it is accessible, liquid, unrelated to Nepal's internal political circumstances, and linked to some of the most significant industrial trends of the upcoming ten years. Right now, no one is discussing silver. Usually, that's when it's worthwhile to pay attention.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Silver is a volatile asset. Prices can fall significantly, and you could lose a portion of your invested capital. Always make investment decisions based on your own research and financial situation.
Tags:
Opinion